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Government Open To Negotiating Pension Reform, February Unemployment Due

COLOMBIA
  • The outperformance of the Colombian peso continued yesterday, as the market reopened from Monday’s holiday, with USDCOP falling to a new YTD low in the session, closing at 3857. Despite last week’s 50bp interest rate cut by the central bank, real yields remain attractive compared with peers for now. However, BBVA see asymmetry in COP here, with limited further gains and the potential for a broader sell off later in 2Q as BanRep cuts accelerate and accumulate further, weakening the carry that has made COP short positions difficult to hold.
  • Separately, Finance Minister Bonilla said that the government is open to negotiating pension reform if lawmakers convince it that a lower threshold of worker contributions would lower the fiscal costs. The timing to approve the pension reform in the first half of the year is tight, he said.
  • On the data front, the urban unemployment is expected to decline to 11.9% in February from 12.4% the month before, according to latest consensus estimates (1500GMT/1100ET). After this, the focus will shift to the minutes for last week’s BanRep MPC meeting, due for release on Monday.
    • Feb. Urban Unemployment Rate, est. 11.9%, prior 12.4%
    • National Unemployment Rate, prior 12.7%
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