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Government Parties Suffer Setbacks In Hesse & Bavaria Elections
The three parties forming the federal governing coalition - Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens, and the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) - all sufferedpoor resultsin the state elections held in Hesse and Bavaria on 8 October. While these were only state elections the results - which saw strong gains for parties on the right - will be seen as a rebuke to the Scholz gov't amid public concerns about the economy and rising immigration.
- While the federal gov't commands a comfortable majority in the Bundestag, there are likely to be concerns among the governing parties - notably the FDP - that its continued participation in gov't risks an electoral wipeout come the next federal election in 2025.
- A low-probability, high-impact scenario would see the FDP withdraw its support from the federal coalition. This would either require a reconfiguration of the gov't, the continuation of a vulnerable minority administration, or snap elections called.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.