July 02, 2024 06:53 GMT
Greater Than Even Odds Of An Aug BoE Cut Still Priced
STIR
SONIA futures are flat to +2.0, while BoE-dated OIS is little changed to 1.5bp more dovish, showing ~14bp of cuts for the August MPC and ~42bp of easing through year end.
- BRC shop price index data showed the shallowest Y/Y rise since late ’21, +0.2%.
- Still, the report noted that “the latest results reveal a slowdown in consumer optimism compared to recent months.” The post-election trajectory in confidence will be worth watching.
- There is little of note on the UK calendar today, outside of gilt supply.
- That will likely leave cross-market moves and election matters at the centre of discussions.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-24 | 5.062 | -13.8 |
| Sep-24 | 5.004 | -19.7 |
| Nov-24 | 4.870 | -33.0 |
| Dec-24 | 4.782 | -41.8 |
| Feb-25 | 4.657 | -54.3 |
| Mar-25 | 4.575 | -62.5 |
| May-25 | 4.460 | -74.0 |
| Jun-25 | 4.381 | -81.9 |
137 words