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Greenback Dominates Amid Global Dovish Repricing

FOREX
  • The greenback was among the strongest performers in G10 on Friday, and comfortably the best performer on the week amid a phase of global central bank re-pricing - particularly dovish shifts in Europe and the UK.
  • Dollar strength put the USD Index back above 104.00 and within range of the mid-February multi-month highs. The USD Index is on track to form a key bullish indicator - a golden cross formation - at the close. The signal, formed when the 50-dma rises above the 200-dma, was last printed in September last year, and pre-saged a further 2% rally to the '23 high.
  • A corrective pullback in GBP/USD persists, with the pair showing below the 200-dma on Friday, mirroring the build in BoE rate cut pricing since Thursday’s decision. Over 80bps of rate cuts are now priced for this calendar year, up from ~60bps at the beginning of the week. This narrows the gap with next support for GBP/USD undercuts at 1.2536, the Feb14 Low and the bear trigger at 1.2519.
  • Focus in the coming week shifts away from global central banks, and is front-loaded with Good Friday keeping markets only partially open on March 29th. Nonetheless, key comms will be watched from BoE's Mann (who dropped her vote for a hike this week) and Fed's Waller on Wednesday.
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