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Greenback On Firmer Footing, Notable AUD Weakness

FOREX
  • The greenback strengthened on Tuesday, with the USD index (+0.35%) erasing the prior day’s losses and edging into positive territory on the week. An empty data docket points to the moves being brushed off as short-term positioning adjustments as we approach the key US inflation data later this week.
  • AUD steadily faded lower on Thursday, largely ignoring the mid-session rebound for major equity indices, with the moves more generally reflecting the poor backdrop for industrial metals (DCE-listed iron ore futures hit multi-week and YTD lows today). Notably, AUDNZD has broken lower, trading the lowest level since Dec13 and the Fed's dovish pivot. 1.0656 marks the downside level to watch from here.
  • Shakier sentiment from China is also key focus, and while expectations are building for fresh policy support from the PBOC (Nomura see PBOC as cutting lending rates as soon as Monday), the anticipated support has failed to prop or reverse the pullback off Dec28's 0.6871 in AUDUSD.
  • 0.6678 and $0.6641 provide weak intraday support, but clearance here would place the pair at the lowest level since the Mid-Dec rally. More broadly, the formation of a golden cross in DMA space (50- rising above the 200-dma) should prove positive if the current pullback is confirmed as corrective in nature.
  • In similar vein, the Swiss Franc is also populating the bottom-end of the G10 table, with the persistent slide in EURCHF and USDCHF stalling at the beginning of 2024. Weakness in CHF comes despite the firmer-than-expected Dec CPI release earlier this week.
  • Australian CPI is the key data release on Wednesday, with potential comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and a 10-yr treasury auction the only other notable risk events for the rest of the session.
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