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Greenback Rally Stalls, UK CPI Provides GBP Relief

FOREX
  • The greenback rally has hit pause early Wednesday, allowing the rest of G10 to shake off a very small part of recent losses and stabilise above lows. This has kept the USD Index just below the cycle high printed yesterday at 106.517, but still comfortably firmer on the week (and month-to-date).
  • GBP trades positively in response to higher-than-expected UK inflation data. Headline Y/Y CPI came in at 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.1%, with the whole series generally topping forecast by ~0.1ppts. This prompted a further backtrack in BoE rate cut expectations across the course of 2024, with markets now pricing around 40bps of cuts by year-end, a new series low. Salient options rolling off at the cut today include £1.1bln rolling off at 1.2390-00 and £586mln at 1.2450, while 0.8525-35 sees €585mln notional expiring in EUR/GBP.
  • NZD is among the session's best performers, however the broader outlook remains soft. NZD/USD printed a new pullback and YTD low this week at 0.5861, but today's bounce has helped relieve AUD/NZD further off the April high, meeting first support at 1.0866, the 23.6% retracement for the February - April upleg.
  • Focus for the duration of the Wednesday session remains on central bank rhetoric, with BoE's Bailey, Greene and Haskel due as well as ECB's Cipollone, de Cos, Schnabel and Lagarde. Fedspeak is thinner, with only Mester appearing after the close, with no scheduled text.
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