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Greenback Remains Under Pressure, EURUSD Rises Above Yesterday’s High

USD
  • The greenback maintains its downward trajectory on Thursday as bullish short-term momentum has waned following the sharp recovery from Tuesday’s lows.
  • Downside momentum picking up a little around the WMR fix, with EURUSD (+0.65) popping above Wednesday’s highs at 1.0210 with the pair now trading close to unchanged for the week ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report. Similar price action being conversely reflected in the broad USD index.
  • In similar vein, USDJPY made a fresh low at 133.05 in recent trade. USDJPY has once again traded in a volatile manner on Thursday, continuing the pairs significant intra-day volatility throughout the week. Despite multiple 100+ pip swings throughout today’s session, the pair remains within the bounds of Wednesday’s range.
    • The nearest technical resistance point lies at 135.32, the 20-day EMA, however, given the fact that the short-term gains have been considered technically corrective, renewed weakness would place focus back on a sustained break of 131.50 and then 130.41, Tuesday’s low.
  • Consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth moderating to 250k in July in a resumption of a downward trend after four remarkably steady months as the gap on pre-pandemic employment levels is almost completely shut.
  • Particular focus is likely on the strength of jobs growth plus any differences between establishment and household surveys, with FOMC speakers putting weight on labour market strength as evidence against the economy already being in recession.
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