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Greens Overtake Scholz's SPD For First Time In INSA Poll


Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) have fallen to third place in the most recent opinion poll from outlet INSA, behind the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the environmentalist Greens. This marks the first time since the 2021 federal election that the SPD have been in third in an INSA poll.

  • INSA poll: CDU/CSU: 27%, Green: 21.5% (+1), SPD: 20% (-2), AfD: 10.5% (+0.5), FDP: 9.5% (+1), LINKE: 3.5%, +/- vs. 27-30 May 2022, Fieldwork: 3-7 June 2022, Sample size: 2,055
  • Scholz and his party have struggled to put forward a consistent message in recent weeks to arrest their decline in support. The high-profiles of the Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck (both from the Greens) during the Ukraine war has also contributed to the shift as centre-left voters switch their allegiances.
  • The broad support for the two prominent Green ministers over those from the SPD is highlighted in INSA polling from earlier in June (see chart below). It shows Scholz (SPD), Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD), and Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) as the three senior Cabinet members with the highest level of respondents stating that they are doing a bad job in office.
  • The next sizeable electoral contest is not due until 9 October, with the Lower Saxony state election taking place. There, Scholz's SPD govern as the senior partner with the CDU. Another poor state election following disastrous results for the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia could do further damage to Scholz's standing.
Chart 1. Approval of Cabinet Members, %, Blue=Doing a Good Job, Red=Doing a Bad Job, Beige=Don't Know

Source: INSA

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