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GS Above Consensus For Friday's Payrolls Report

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman Sachs estimate NFP growth of 275k (mom sa), “reflecting a favorable evolution in the April seasonal factors and a continued boost from above-normal immigration.”
  • “Big Data measures were mixed but generally indicate a solid or strong pace of job gains, and our layoff tracker continues to indicate that the pace of layoffs is low.”
  • They see the u/e rate edging down but unchanged on a rounded basis at 3.8%, “reflecting a rise in household employment and flat-to-up labor force participation (at 62.7%)”.
  • “Foreign-born unemployment normalized in March, falling sharply by 261k (SA by GS) and limiting the scope for further declines in April.”
  • AHE seen rising 0.20% M/M, lowering the Y/Y from 4.14% to 3.95%. “Our forecast reflects waning wage pressures and a nearly 10bp drag from calendar effects (mom sa).”
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