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GS: Eyeing Sequentially Slower Shelter Inflation

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Released Jan 12, Goldman see core CPI inflation at 0.25% M/M (5.6% Y/Y, -0.4pps).
  • It reflects used cars slipping further on the back of falling auction prices and new car prices on rebounding incentives, along with an assumed decline in apparel prices reflecting increased holiday promotionality plus a 2% pullback in airfares on lower oil prices.
  • Key shelter prices are seen at a sequentially slower pace (rent +0.67% and OER +0.64%) as weakness in new rental pricing begins to offset continued upward pressure on renewing leases.
  • Upside drivers are seen from another gain in the car insurance category, as carriers push through price increases to offset higher repair and replacement costs.
  • Headline CPI seen -0.06% M/M, reflecting lower gasoline but higher food prices.
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