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GS on CEE Terminal Rates

CEE
  • The MNB has indicated its preparedness to continue tightening monetary policy in the coming months, but the NBP and CNB rate guidance has been more dovish.
  • However, faced with the combination of exceptionally high inflation, rising inflation expectations and weak exchange rates, GS thinks that CEE-4 central banks have little choice other than to maintain a pro-active approach in tightening monetary policy.
  • GS now forecasts a terminal policy rate of 13.00% in Hungary and 8.00% in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania.

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