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GS on NBP and PLN

POLAND
  • Given troubling inflation dynamics, GS thinks that more policy tightening is warranted, and therefore maintains its forecast that rates will reach +8.00% in Poland.
  • In the near term, however, GS expects the NBP to maintain its more dovish stance.
  • In GS view, the performance of the Zloty will be a key factor in determining whether the NBP will be able to maintain this stance.
  • Related to this, one source of ongoing exchange rate depreciation pressures has been the large deterioration in Poland's external position.
  • With the recent announcement of significant fiscal spending heading into an election year next year, GS thinks that it is likely that the current account deficit will persist for longer.
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