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GS: Pullback From Temporary Boost To Labor-Reliant Services Inflation

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman analysts see core CPI printing 0.32% M/M (cons 0.3) / 3.7% Y/Y in February, with headline at 0.44% (cons 0.4).
  • "Start-of-year price increases temporarily boosted prices in labor-reliant services categories in January, and with this January effect now behind us, we forecast a return to the previous inflation trend, specifically for medical care, personal care, car repair, and day care services."
  • The acceleration in headline is seen driven by higher energy (+2.4%) and food (+0.15%) prices.
  • OER is expected to "step down...following outsized volatility in January", to 0.47% M/M, 0.09pp softer than in January - with Rents ticking up 0.06pp to 0.42%.
  • They also "assume small declines in new (-0.3%) and used (-0.4%) car prices, reflecting higher incentives and lower auction prices.
  • On services, "on the positive side, we assume a 1.5% rise in airfares and another strong gain in car insurance (+1.6%), based on online price data.
  • We estimate a 0.44% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher energy (+2.4%) and food (+0.15%) prices.
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