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GS See Waning Wage Pressures But Positive Calendar Effects

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman Sachs estimate NFP growth of 190k in Dec (mom sa) “reflecting a boost from mild winter weather and a favorable swing in the December seasonal factors worth roughly +50k.”
  • “While Big Data employment indicators indicate a lackluster pace of hiring, initial jobless claims fell further, consistent with fewer end-of-year layoffs.”
  • “On the negative side, we assume another sizeable decline in retail payrolls, reflecting soft brick-and-mortar spending trends during the holiday season.”
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.7%, “reflecting flat-to-up household employment following its sharp jump in November", with the participation rate unchanged at 62.8%.
  • AHE seen at 0.30% M/M that lowers the Y/Y rate by one tenth to 3.9%, “reflecting waning wage pressures but positive calendar effects (the latter worth 5-10bps)”.
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