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GS Stronger Than Consensus For Payrolls And U/E Rate, Not AHE

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman estimate NFP growth of 250k in July (cons 200k), with Big Data indicators suggesting strong job growth on net, whilst noting payroll growth tends to pick up in the early summer when the labor market is tight, reflecting strong hiring of youth summer workers.
  • They estimate the unemployment rate edged down one tenth to 3.5% (from 3.57% in June, cons 3.6%) reflecting a rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation (at 62.6%).
  • AHE seen increasing 0.3% M/M (cons 0.3) to push the Y/Y down to 0.2pps to 4.2% Y/Y, reflecting waning upward wage pressures and positive calendar effects.
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