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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Implied UK rates through 2024 fell sharply Tuesday, following comments late Monday by BoE chief economist Pill that rate cuts could come as soon as the middle of next year. Sep-Dec24 SOFR contracts rallied 10+ ticks on the day.
- Peak BoE rates are seen only 3-4bp from current levels, in Feb - with the first full 25bp cut by August (30bp, vs 20bp of reductions seen prior to Pill's comments). In all there are 90bp of cuts priced in the year following the BoE terminal being reached - 5bp more than seen Monday.
Eurozone rate futures also rose Tuesday, with the Euribor strip 1-2 ticks higher through the green contracts.
- Echoing Pill, ECB's Stournaras noted that the Governing Council could think about cutting rates starting in H2 2024, if inflation falls below 3%.
- There's 90bp of cuts priced over the course of 2024, 2bp more than seen Monday - the first full 25bp cut is priced by June, with April in play (20bp of reductions expected).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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