IRELAND
Simon Harris has been confirmed as Ireland's new Taoiseach (PM) following the resumption of the Dail (lower house of parliament) after the Easter recess. There has been focus on what changes the Harris administration may enact, but the broad expectation is for policy continuity given Harris' centrist stance and the constraints imposed by the tripartite coalition agreement.
- Harris, hailing from the same Fine Gael (FG) party as erstwhile Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, will govern at the head of a coalition involving the centrist Fianna Fail (FF) of Tánaiste (Deputy PM) and Foreign Minister Micheál Martin and the environmentalist Greens of Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications Eamon Ryan.
- There is some pressurefrom within FG for Harris to take in a more traditional centre-right direction with a focus on supporting small business, farming and 'law and order' politics. However, any notable change in stance looks unlikely, with the new PM calling FG "a centrist party". He has claimed that he will seek to solve Ireland's housing shortage, resulting in soaring prices and rents, "once and for all".
- Polling would indicate that voters may not be taking Harris at his word, with FG still in a distant second place behind the left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein (SF).
- Nevertheless, with an election due by March 2025 at the latest, SF's steady decline in support could open the door to another FG-FF administration. This would likely rely on the support of independent lawmakers, with ~17% of voters indicating they will back non-party linked candidates at the next election.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Ireland Thinks, Red C, Ipsos, B&A, MNI
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