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Harris Lags Biden's And Clinton's Labor Day Lead Despite Polling Surge

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Vice President Kamala Harris' polling surge has recovered the polling gap between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, but her 3-point in national polling is behind Hillary Clinton's and Biden's respective polling advantage at this stage in their 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

  • Newsweek notes: "[per 538] Harris' lead over Trump is currently 3.3 points (47.1 percent to 43.8). In 2020, Biden's lead over Trump as of Labor Day was 7.5 points," and Clinton's margin on Labor Day was 3.7 percentage points.
  • Harris has an additional problem, as some analysts predict that Trump may have a greater Electoral College Advantage this year than he did in 2016 and 2020. The advantage suggests Harris may need to win the popular vote by around four points to ensure an Electoral College win.
  • Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report writes: “In 1997, the median Electoral College vote (located in Iowa) had a PVI score of D+1; meaning that the median Electoral College vote was one point more Democratic than the nation as a whole. By 2005, the median Electoral College state (Florida) had a PVI of R+1. In 2021, Wisconsin, with a PVI score of R+2, is the median Electoral College vote. So, if, for example, a Republican presidential candidate were to get 49 percent of the national popular vote, we should expect that Republican to get 51 percent of the vote in Wisconsin.”
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Vice President Kamala Harris' polling surge has recovered the polling gap between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, but her 3-point in national polling is behind Hillary Clinton's and Biden's respective polling advantage at this stage in their 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

  • Newsweek notes: "[per 538] Harris' lead over Trump is currently 3.3 points (47.1 percent to 43.8). In 2020, Biden's lead over Trump as of Labor Day was 7.5 points," and Clinton's margin on Labor Day was 3.7 percentage points.
  • Harris has an additional problem, as some analysts predict that Trump may have a greater Electoral College Advantage this year than he did in 2016 and 2020. The advantage suggests Harris may need to win the popular vote by around four points to ensure an Electoral College win.
  • Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report writes: “In 1997, the median Electoral College vote (located in Iowa) had a PVI score of D+1; meaning that the median Electoral College vote was one point more Democratic than the nation as a whole. By 2005, the median Electoral College state (Florida) had a PVI of R+1. In 2021, Wisconsin, with a PVI score of R+2, is the median Electoral College vote. So, if, for example, a Republican presidential candidate were to get 49 percent of the national popular vote, we should expect that Republican to get 51 percent of the vote in Wisconsin.”