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Harris Poll-RN To Win 190-220 Seats, Well Short Of Majority

FRANCE
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Latest Harris poll ahead of the 7 July legislative election second round has the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) winning between 190 and 220 seats in the National Assembly, well short of the 289 majority threshold.

  • The poll projects the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) on 155-190 seats, the centrist Ensemble alliance of President Emmanuel Macron on 100, and the centre-right Les Republicains on 20-30 seats.
  • It would seem to indicate that the 'republican front' that has seen hundreds of third-placed NFP or Ensemble candidates pull out of the race in order to limit a split in the vote that could allow the RN to win an overall majority may prove effective in its aim.
  • Nevertheless, the scenario outlined in this poll would still lead to broad political paralysis in France, with little prospect of major or contentious legislation passing. While Ensemble and NFP appear willing to work together to stop the rise of the RN, they will not work together in parliament given their significant ideological differences.
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Latest Harris poll ahead of the 7 July legislative election second round has the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) winning between 190 and 220 seats in the National Assembly, well short of the 289 majority threshold.

  • The poll projects the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) on 155-190 seats, the centrist Ensemble alliance of President Emmanuel Macron on 100, and the centre-right Les Republicains on 20-30 seats.
  • It would seem to indicate that the 'republican front' that has seen hundreds of third-placed NFP or Ensemble candidates pull out of the race in order to limit a split in the vote that could allow the RN to win an overall majority may prove effective in its aim.
  • Nevertheless, the scenario outlined in this poll would still lead to broad political paralysis in France, with little prospect of major or contentious legislation passing. While Ensemble and NFP appear willing to work together to stop the rise of the RN, they will not work together in parliament given their significant ideological differences.