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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The first USA Today/Suffolk University presidential election survey of the cycle in Florida has found Vice President Kamala Harris is within “striking distance” of former President Donald Trump in the state.
- USA Today notes: “Trump leads Harris by 5 percentage points in the survey, but that’s closer than other recent polls… It’s also within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error...”
- Florida, once considered the country’s largest swing state, has been trending towards the GOP with a Trump 3.3% win in 2020 and Governor Ron DeSantis’ dominant 19% win in 2022.
- Considering the state now has 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, the apparently tight race suggests that Harris’ resurgent campaign could be driving a broader Democrat recovery to somewhere in line with Biden’s successful 2020 campaign.
- Semafor notes: “Trump is more popular than he’s been in Florida at this point in any of his races; DeSantis is slightly more popular. The outlier is [Senator Rick] Scott [R-FL], who has never won a race by more than 2 percentage points..."
- If Democrats can make the Florida Senate race competitive, it would expand their 2024 map to include a potential pickup opportunity. Currently, the race for control of the Senate is favouring the GOP as Democrats are certain to lose West Virginia and Senator Jon Tester (D-MO) is expected to have to outperform Harris by double-digits in Montana to hold his seat. Bringing Florida into play could open a second pathway for retaining the chamber.
Figure 1: Florida Favourability Ratings
Source: Semafor
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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