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Harris Strengthens On Betting Markets Amid Signs Of Post-Debate Polling Bump

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Betting markets have seen a slight bump in Vice President Kamala Harris' implied probability of winning the presidential election amid a string of polls suggesting that the presidential debate with former President Donald Trump may have bolstered her support in key swing states.

  • ElectionBettingOdds, a site that aggregates real-time data from betting and prediction markets, shows Harris with a 54.2% implied probability of winning, bettering Harris' previous high mark of 54% on August 15.
  • Recent polls include an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showing Trump leading Harris by three points in Georgia.
  • A Quinnipiac survey showing Harris up by six points in Pennsylvania and five points in Michigan - two of her strongest polls in the Rust Belt swing states.
  • The same Quinnipiac survey, and a new AARP survey, gives Harris a narrower 1-point lead in Wisconsin, the Blue Wall state that had previously appeared to be leaning more heavily towards Harris.
  • The New York Times teases the imminent release of their highly anticipated new Siena College survey on their polling tracker: "Coming this week: Times/Siena polls of the U.S. and Pennsylvania, in partnership with The Philadelphia Inquirer."
  • The Siena survey has been a market mover this year that has thrown out a series of outlier results, including foreshadowing the polling collapse that eventually led to Biden's ouster as the Democratic nominee.

Figure 1: Presidential Election Winner

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Betting markets have seen a slight bump in Vice President Kamala Harris' implied probability of winning the presidential election amid a string of polls suggesting that the presidential debate with former President Donald Trump may have bolstered her support in key swing states.

  • ElectionBettingOdds, a site that aggregates real-time data from betting and prediction markets, shows Harris with a 54.2% implied probability of winning, bettering Harris' previous high mark of 54% on August 15.
  • Recent polls include an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showing Trump leading Harris by three points in Georgia.
  • A Quinnipiac survey showing Harris up by six points in Pennsylvania and five points in Michigan - two of her strongest polls in the Rust Belt swing states.
  • The same Quinnipiac survey, and a new AARP survey, gives Harris a narrower 1-point lead in Wisconsin, the Blue Wall state that had previously appeared to be leaning more heavily towards Harris.
  • The New York Times teases the imminent release of their highly anticipated new Siena College survey on their polling tracker: "Coming this week: Times/Siena polls of the U.S. and Pennsylvania, in partnership with The Philadelphia Inquirer."
  • The Siena survey has been a market mover this year that has thrown out a series of outlier results, including foreshadowing the polling collapse that eventually led to Biden's ouster as the Democratic nominee.

Figure 1: Presidential Election Winner

Keep reading...Show less