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Havens See No Support On Uptick in Geopolitical Risk

FOREX
  • Markets trade solidly despite the uptick in geopolitical tensions over the weekend and the direct Iranian attack on Israeli soil that drew support from US, British and French military assets. Haven currencies have found no support, with USD/JPY instead reverting higher - putting JPY lower against all others in G10.
  • USD/JPY traded well from the open, putting the pair at fresh multi-decade highs up at 153.97 - marking another session of gains despite the background threat of intervention from the Japanese authorities.
  • GBP trades more favourably on the day, but is holding the bulk of the losses posted into the Friday close. GBP/USD remains below the 200-dma, broken last week at 1.2582, and a softer-than-expected CPI release this week could open last week's lows and first support at 1.2427.
  • Similarly, CAD has recovered off last week's lowest levels, keeping the near-term top at last week's 1.3787 the next upside level for USD/CAD. Any further pullback in the pair opens 1.3714 as initial support ahead of 1.3669.
  • US retail sales mark the highlight Monday, with consensus looking for retail sales to slow to 0.4% from 0.6% previously. Empire manufacturing is also due, as well as speeches from BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane & de Cos as well as Fed's Williams.
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