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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH AFRICA
- EUR/ZAR is unwinding some of January’s weakness (-4.09%) following yesterday’s more hawkish ECB meeting, adding upside pressure in the cross.
- Forward guidance was recalibrated to more hawkish settings yesterday with the MPC unanimously voicing its concern over the path of EU inflation, which it now assesses as being to the upside.
- Lagarde stipulated that the bank would retain optionality and flexibility to act in 2022 should the need arise – supporting a bid in the euro yesterday and this morning.
- As a late hiker, ZAR is among the Ems more vulnerable to a tightening external backdrop in the medium-term, but has been kept firm in Jan by PBoC easing, better terms of trade and a brighter fiscal outlook going into the Feb budget.
- Nevertheless, the SARB is not expected to deliver an aggressive hiking cycle, with roughly +125bp in hikes expected for the remainder of the year – set against a narrowing current account surplus.
- EUR/ZAR held onto its bull channel pattern established in June 2021 and has returned above the 200dma in the past two sessions. Further bullish inputs for the euro in the coming months could push the cross back towards the 18.00 handle, especially in the SARB continues to be viewed as erring on the dovish side.
- Nevertheless, price action will need the move through the 100 & 50 dmas at 17.5980 & 17.73 respectively to take the next leg higher.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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