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Headline CPI Beats But Core Measures Broadly In Line

CANADA
  • Headline CPI inflation sees a two tenth beat, only slowing from 7.0% to 6.9% Y/Y (cons 6.7%), but BoC core measures are broadly as expected and unchanged at an average 5.0% Y/Y for median (-0.1pt miss) and trim (+0.1pt beat).
  • CPI-common again surprised to the upside with an unchanged but significantly upward revised 6.0% Y/Y but Macklem was keen to point out the difficulty in using this measure in real-time.
  • Traditional core (ex food & energy) ticking up a tenth to 5.4% Y/Y might give more concern, but remains below July’s high of 5.5% Y/Y and with the BoC’s preferred core measures broadly as expected, the report feels unlikely at first glance to give a clear steer for the BoC in either direction to a 50bp or 75bp hike next week.

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