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Headline Inflation Likely Accelerated in September

Inflation data is on the docket in South Africa tomorrow morning (0900BST). As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, headline CPI likely rose from 4.8% y/y in August to 5.4% in September. The monthly figure is seen at 0.7% (Prior: 0.3%) while core CPI likely moderated slightly to 4.7% y/y (Prior: 4.8%).
  • Goldman Sachs say headline inflation likely rose to 5.3% in September, while core inflation likely edged lower from 4.8% y/y to 4.6% y/y. Among core factors, they project a sharp increase in petrol inflation, slightly offset by food inflation that they expect to have declined from 8.0% y/y to 7.4%.
  • JP Morgan say inflation probably rose to 5.6% y/y in September. They expect core inflation to have remained at 4.8%. That said, they say uncertainty around the forecast is particularly high, given the quarterly survey of OER, domestic workers’ wages, and also less predictable public transportation costs.
  • Nedbank forecast consumer prices to have increased by 0.5% m/m in September, lifting the inflation rate to 5.3% y/y. The upward pressure in September emanated primarily from fuel prices after the price of petrol rose sharply, they say. In addition, food prices are expected to have continued moderating off a high base, still benefitting from the lagged effect of lower global food prices and contained by shrinking household demand.

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