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Headline Moving Up As Expected, But Core Remains Stubborn

SPAIN DATA

Spain flash August HICP and CPI printed at 2.4% Y/Y and 2.6% Y/Y respectively (each one-tenth of a percentage point above expectations), while both monthly prints were 0.5% M/M (in line with expectations).

  • Core CPI remained sticky at 6.1% Y/Y, a touch below the 6.2% figure for July (M/M at +0.3%).
  • In contrast, this was the second consecutive acceleration (0.3pp vs July) in Y/Y headline prices after having fallen to a low of 1.9% in June. The headline print was driven by a rise in fuel prices and liquid fuels relative to August 2022, (in which prices fell).
  • Electricity prices increased on the month, but less than in August 2022, putting some downward pressure on the headline Y/Y reading.
  • The divergence in core and headline Y/Y inflation earlier in the year was due mainly to base effects, and as such it's not a surprise that the gap is narrowing in favour of higher headline CPI as opposed to much lower core CPI.
  • While this was to be expected, and the report overall doesn't change the outlook much for the Eurozone-wide print on Thursday, the stickiness in core around the 6% area bears attention in the months ahead.

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