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Headline Wage Measures Falter, But Same Sample Base Paints Resilient Picture

JAPAN DATA

Headline wage outcomes came in below expectations for March. Nominal cash earnings were up 0.6% y/y, against a 1.4% forecast. Real cash earnings fell -2.5%y/y against -1.4% forecast, and a revised -1.8% print for Feb.

  • Affecting these headline outcomes was a -9.4%y/y dip in bonus payments. Hours worked also fell, -2.7% y/y versus -0.5% prior.
  • Still, cash earnings on a same sample base were better in y/y terms, up 2.2% compared with 1.9% prior (2.2% was the forecast). Scheduled full time pay on a same base were 2.3% y/y (against a 1.9% forecast and 2.1% prior).
  • The chart below shows the headline measures in the top panel, while the same base measures are presented in the bottom panel.
  • The same base measures present a more resilient outlook and should go some way to offsetting the weaker headline prints. The firm wage outcomes negotiated recently are also expected to start impacting the data in April per the BoJ.

Fig 1: Japan Wage Outcomes Y/Y, More Resilient Using Same Sample Base (bottom panel)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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