Henry Hub Heading For Net Decline on Week After EIA Stock Build

US Henry Hub front month is holding steady today but heading for a net decline on the week driven by a gas storage surplus, strong domestic production, a dip in LNG export flows and near normal weather.

• US Natgas NOV 23 down -0.1% at 2.95$/mmbtu
• US Natgas APR 24 down -0.5% at 3.04$/mmbtu
• US Natgas OCT 24 down -0.4% at 3.41$/mmbtu
• The latest EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending 13 Oct showed a larger than expected build of +97bcf compared to the five-year average for this time of year of +85bcf. The total US inventories remain above normal at 3,626bcf compared to the average of 3,429bcf.
• US domestic natural gas production was yesterday stable at 103.1bcf/d according to Bloomberg compared to the average so far this month at 102.1bcf/d.
• Natural gas deliveries to US LNG export facilities are today at 14.0bcf/d according to Bloomberg with supplies down from the high of 14.6bcf/d on 17 Oct.
• Lower 48 dry gas demand is holding near the five year average for the time of year at 67.2bcf/d today according to Bloomberg. The latest NOAA forecast shows above normal temperatures moving eastwards across the country in the coming week to be replaced by near normal temperatures for much of the country into week two. Northern areas are expected to stay below normal and the Gulf Coast holding just above normal throughout the two week forecast.
• Export flows to Mexico are today estimated at 6.28bcf/d.