Hezbollah Head Again Warns Of Escalation But Holds Back From War

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has delivered a public address for the second time this week. His comments have been closely observed following the drone strike that killed Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in a suburb of Beirut on 2 Jan, with concerns that Iran-backed Hezbollah could launch a major offensive against Israel in the north of the country.

• Nasrallah states that "Residents of northern Israel, including settlers, will be first to pay the price of a war." Nasrallah: "We are facing a historic opportunity for the complete liberation of every inch of our land and the establishment of an equation that prevents the enemy from breaching our sovereignty."
• Nasrallah: "The breach that occurred in the southern suburb cannot pass without a response or consequences. There will be retaliation and punishment, and the decision lies on the ground. We cannot remain silent regarding a breach of this level of danger, which means that Lebanon will become vulnerable."

While the comments sound bellicose, they do not seem to indicate that Nasrallah will seek any wider conflagration with Israel. He specifically refers to 'northern Israel', potentially implying that it is that region that could face increase rocket or missile barrages. It should be noted that large swathes of the region have become largely depopulated of civilians due to frequent Hezbollah attacks on Israeli positions.

• Nevertheless, the risk of escalation via miscalculation (a rocket/missile from either side hitting an unintended target for instance) remains high.