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Free AccessHICP Dips Below 2% Threshold, Core Remains Elevated
SPAIN JUN FLASH HICP +0.6% M/M (FCST +0.4%); MAY -0.1% M/M
SPAIN JUN FLASH HICP +1.6% Y/Y (FCST +1.5%); MAY +2.9% Y/Y
SPAIN JUN FLASH CORE CPI +5.9% Y/Y (FCST +5.5%); MAY +6.1% Y/Y
- Spanish inflation eased in the June flash data, albeit slightly less than expected by consensus on the annualised prints, with HICP y/y 0.1pp higher and core CPI 0.4pp higher than expected.
- HICP slowed by 1.3pp to +1.6% y/y, dipping below the 2% ECB target for the first time since March 2021.
- INE highlighted that the softer 2023 increase in fuel, electricity and food prices accounted for the bulk of downwards pressure on June's headline prints.
- Yet the +0.6% m/m uptick in harmonised prices on the month flags that short-term price pressures persist.
- Spanish core CPI failed to see significant relief in June, easing only by 0.2pp to +5.9% y/y, against expectations of a 0.6pp deceleration. Stubborn services inflation was likely partly responsible, especially as tourism season kicks off.
- This follows a stronger decline in Italian core CPI (+5.6% y/y vs May +6.0%), whilst German state data for NRW provided initial indication of an upswing in German core inflation (NRW core +%5.6% vs +5.0%).
Source: INE
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