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High inflation data, but we look for less BOE impact than for wage data

UK DATA
  • Health and recreation/culture seem to be the biggest upward contributions to services inflation picking up at first glance.
  • This is likely to compound pressure on the MPC to look for a 25bp hike in May. As we noted ahead of the data around 22.5bp was priced for the meeting. We don't think this data really puts 50bp in play so we're only likely to move up a little there.
  • In terms of terminal rate expectations which are around 61bp for September, that could drift up a little bit today but overall we would expect today's data to have less overall impact than yesterday's labour market (private sector wage) data.
  • Bunds and USTs have moved lower in reaction to the UK data but GBPUSD has moved almost 20 pips off its high at the time of writing (with the USD strengthening across the board post-data).
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