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Higher Petrol Prices Risk For Upcoming Consumer Data

AUSTRALIA DATA

Retail petrol prices were down less than a cent as of October 9, as measured by the Australian Institute of Petroleum, but month average prices to date have seen an increase of 8.4% due to the return of the full fuel excise at the end of September.

  • This trend could impact this week’s consumer data with both consumer confidence and inflation expectations tending to move with petrol prices this year. As a result, sentiment could turn down again after last month’s tick up and inflation expectations could rise after three consecutive months of declines.
  • Wholesale petrol prices rose more than 13 cents over the last week, which could put upward pressure on prices at the pump, according to the Australian.
  • Crude oil prices are so far lower today (-0.9%) but both WTI and Brent are holding above $90/barrel after prices rose strongly last week on news that OPEC+ would cut production 2mn bpd.
Fig 1: Petrol prices and inflation expectations

Source: MNI - Market News, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Refinitv


Fig 2: Petrol prices and consumer confidence

Source: MNI - Market News, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Refinitv

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