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Holding Above $1.10, Rate Differentials Narrowing

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD has firmed above $1.10 handle printing its highest level since late February yesterday, the pair last prints at $1.1015/25.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2 Year swaps, continue to narrow last dealing at -99bps as the impact of the RBA's latest rate hike lingers. We had been as wide as -165bps in late May.
  • Now that the $1.10 handle has been cleared bulls target YTD highs at $1.1088, a break through here opens $1.1150 a Fibonacci projection.
  • On the downside bears first target the low from 6 June ($1.0884).
  • New Zealand's Q1 Manufacturing Activity crosses shortly, there is no estimate. Also due this morning is Australia's April Trade Balance, a surplus of $13.65bn is expected.
Fig 1: AU NZ 2 Year Swap vs AUD/NZD Daily Spot

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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