Holding Softer After Bostic & UK Retail Sales

UK retail sales data helped the Bostic-inspired move higher in yields to extend in early London hours, but Tsys have since found a base.

• TYH4 last shows -0-07+ at 109-30, 0-02 off the base of its early 0-11+ range.
• The contract operates on ~226K volume, which is respectable given that Chinese markets remain closed.
• Initial support is seen at the 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19-Dec 27 climb/Feb 14 low (109-17/16+)
• Cash Tsy yields are 2.5-3.5 bp higher, with intermediates under the most pressure. 2s have extended their bounce from ~4.50%.
• FOMC-dated OIS shows ~93bp of cuts through ’24 on the whole, with the first 25bp cut still more than fully discounted come the end of the June ’24 FOMC (~26bp of easing seen over that horizon).
• PPI, UoM sentiment survey (watch inflation expectations), building permits and housing starts will cross in NY hours.
• We will also get Fedspeak from Barr, Daly & Barkin