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CPI Data Due 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • The UK inflation data is due at 7:00GMT.
  • The Bank of England’s MPR forecast headline CPI to fall to 4.76%Y/Y in October while the median from the previews that we have read looks for 4.7%Y/Y (from 6.65%Y/Y in September).
  • The Bank of England expects services inflation to remain broadly at 6.9%Y/Y until the end of the year (6.89%Y/Y for October). In general this persistence in services inflation seems to be in contrast to expectations on the sellside for a gradual fall into year-end. Indeed, the median expectation for sellside analysts for services inflation in October is 6.7%Y/Y.
  • The MNI Markets team still thinks that there are two-way risks to the market from the inflation print this morning. A higher-than-expected print could see the small probability of a near-term hike climb (but probably only if we saw services come in higher than the Bank of England forecast, not just higher than the sellside consensus).
  • A lower-than-expected print would likely mean more question marks are placed over the Bankof England’s inflation forecasts – they would immediately look too high and open up the possibility of an earlier rate cut next year (as of yesterday's close the first cut was now around 85% priced in by June 2024 with just under a 50/50 probability of a May cut). A soft print this morning could see an even higher probability of a May 2024 cut.
For the full MNI CPI preview see the PDF here.
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