House-Passed Tax Bill Faces More Difficult Test In Senate

The USD$79 billion tax deal which sailed through the House, 357-70, yesterday faces a sterner test in the Senate amid questions over the actual cost of the bill, the tricky politics of an election year, and an exceptionally busy Senate schedule.

• Bloomberg reports, “Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell [R-KY] has been silent on the bill and the top Republican tax-writer Mike Crapo [R-ID] has said Republicans could offer “hundreds” of amendments on the Senate floor.”
• Senate Republicans may be cautious about handing Biden a legislative win on child tax credits ahead of the presidential election, as Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said openly: “I think passing a tax bill that makes the president look good, may allow checks before the election — means that [Joe Biden] could be reelected and then we won’t extend the 2017 [Trump-era] tax bill.”
• However, considering the bipartisan House vote, and a major lobbying effort from business groups, the Senate will be under pressure from multiple flanks to pass the bill. A GOP lobbyist told Semafor: “Senate Republicans in the minority won’t be the final obstacle to a bill that clears a Republican House with 300+ votes.”
• A more credible threat comes from the schedule. As the chamber prepares to recess for two weeks, a pending slate includes any, or all, of, a US-Mexico border bill, Biden's national security supplemental, FY2024 funding bills which must be passed by early March, a solution to the FAA's authority which expires on March 8, and an impeachment trial against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.