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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
One-year household inflation expectations eased further in Q4, just as those for businesses did. The RBNZ said in a research report this year that the mean 1-year measure from households has the closest relationship with inflation. Simple correlations are over 80% with both headline and core. It moderated to 5.5% from 6% whereas the median was steady at 5%. The mean suggests that disinflation should continue in Q4 which is good news for the RBNZ. The next meeting is on November 29 and will include updated forecasts.
- The median perception of current inflation eased 0.2pp to 7% but the mean rose 0.6pp to 10.1%.
- Looking further out, 2-year mean household inflation expectations fell 0.1pp to 3.2% but the median returned to the top of the target band at 3%. Median 5-year expectations remain anchored at the bottom of the band.
- The survey also asks about house prices and a net 56.5% of households expect higher prices up from 30.1% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q1. They are expected to rise 2% in a year after flat expectations for some time and 7% in 5-years. Strong population growth driven by immigration is supporting the housing market.
NZ inflation y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/RBNZ
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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