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HSBC View Ahead of the Sep MPC Meeting

BOE
  • HSBC note that with "the news has been good enough" for the MPC to stay on hold and look for a unanimous 9-0 vote for unchanged policy.
  • However, HSBC point out that MPC member comments "appear to have become more downbeat." And state that "This may indicate that they are trying to signal the possibility of further easing".
  • HSBC expect the Bank to keep unchanged policy until at least end 2021 and that "the BoE's forecasts, market stability and low gilt yields mean the BoE might need some big downside risks to crystallise before it eases again."
  • However, HSBC concedes that "a more negative tone in the September minutes could open the door wider to further easing in November…[and] may consider a slow pace of purchases pre-emptively to prevent one from developing."
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