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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SCANDIS
Iceland's incumbent left-right gov't teeters on the brink of losing its majority according to opinion polling in the last days before the island's general election on 25 September.
- The current gov't is formed by the unlikely coalition of the centre-right Independence Party, the left-wing environmentalist Left-Green Movement (which provides Iceland's PM, Katrin Jakobsdottir), and the agrarian Progressive Party.
- Polls show the Independence Party, one of Iceland's historically dominant parties and a prime opponent of EU membership, set to remain the largest party in the Althing (parliament). However, there are a host of parties contending for second place including the Left-Greens, the centre-left Social Democratic Alliance, the centre-right Liberal Reform Party and the anti-establishment Pirate Party.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling for Icelandic General Election, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: MMR, Gallup, Prosent, Maskina, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual polling result.
- Icelandic newspaper Morgunbladid has compiled a list of potential majority coalitions based on recent MMR polling. According to this, the reformation of the current gov't would not carry a majority, with at least a four-party coalition required. These range from a right-wing gov't of the Independence, Progressive, Liberal Reform and Centre parties, through to a left-wing administration of the Left-Green, Progressive, Social Democratic, Socialist, and Pirate parties.
Chart 2. Potential Coalition Options According to Recent Polling
Source: Morgunbladid
- The likelihood of a fractured parliament after the election raises the possibility of lengthy coalition negotiations resulting in a sustained period of political paralysis following the vote.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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