IEA Raised Oil Demand Growth for 2023 by 100kbpd to 2.4mbpd

Global oil demand growth for this year has been revised up again by 100kbpd to 2.4mbpd to reach 102mbpd, with Chinese demand accounting for 1.8mbpd of all growth, according to the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report.

• Chinese demand rose to a new record high of 17.1mbpd in September.
• The IEA also revised up demand growth for next year by 30kbpd to 930kbpd.
• On the supply side, global oil supply has been revised up to grow by 1.7mbpd to 101.8mbpd this year, up by 200kbpd from previous projections due to higher growth from the US and Brazil.
• Global oil production is forecast to rise by 1.6mbpd in 2024 to 103.4mbpd, revised down by 100kbpd from last month’s report.
• Global oil production rose by 320kbpd to 102mbpd in October.
• The IEA forecasts a supply deficit of 900kbpd this quarter, revised down by around 30% from previous projections, as increases in supply outpaced higher demand expectations.
• Global crude runs are expected to rise by 1.9mbpd in 2023 to average 82.6mbpd, revised up from 1.7mbpd in the previous report, and by 1mbpd to average 83.6mbpd in 2024.
• Refinery margins collapsed in October from the near-record levels during 3Q, as weaker gasoline cracks drove much of the decline but still-elevated middle distillate cracks ensured margins remain above the five-year average.
• Russian oil exports declined by 70kbpd month on month in October to 7.5mbpd.