IFX: Gov't Recognises LPR/DPR Separatists Within Borders They Control

Wires and social media reporting comments from Russian state-run Interfax reporting that the Russian Foreign Ministry has stated that it recognises the authority of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics within the borders that they currently control.

• If this stance holds, it would settle one of the major issues that observers have focused on since last night's announcement by Putin, namely, would the DPR and LPR be recognised along the current borders/lines of control or would it encompass the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (regions) of Ukraine.
• The recognition of the current borders could indicate a more limited incursion that sees Russian troops deployed in separatist-held areas of Ukraine, in a similar situation to the annexed Crimea or the disputed Transnistria region of Moldova.

Map 1. Eastern Ukraine and Separatist Republics

Source: CNN

• Should be noted that this situation could change rapidly, but should Russian forces remain within the separatist controlled areas (in red in the map above) a broader war between Ukrainian and Russian forces may prove avoidable.
• However, incursions into the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, or the attempt to establish a land bridge to Crimea could risk sparking a much broader and more violent conflict.