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In a note released late on Monday TD...>

AUSSIE BONDS: In a note released late on Monday TD Securities recommended
selling the ACGB April 2023 line against a long position in the ACGB May 2028
- The strategists note that TD's US rate strategists are fading the move higher
in yields and look for a dovish tilt in this week's release of the FOMC May
Meeting Minutes.
- TD believe that the spread is nearing technical resistance and also believe
the position looks attractive from a relative value basis in that "the ACGB
04/23 is 2.3 s.d. rich & the ACGB 05/28 is 1.9 s.d. cheap to the deviation from
the fitted curve over the past 6 months. Also the fair ACGB 04/23-05/28 is the
cheapest vs the actual spread since the ACGB 05/28 was issued in May 2016."
- TD also note that "curve flattener positioning is light."
- TD suggest that risks to the trade include "US 10-Year yield breaking above
3.125%, Japanese selling of 10-Year US Tsys or ACGBs or the market scaling back
rate hike expectations."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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