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Increasingly Large Overshoot In Inflation Breakeven

US TSYS
  • The 5Y breakeven has increased today back to highs of 3.68% briefly touched last week.
  • It has again shown resilience to oil moving lower and comes despite a further large increase in hikes with an additional 193bps of hikes priced for this year.
  • More encouragingly the longer term 5Y5Y forward breakeven has been trimmed to 2.37% but remains near recent hights.
  • The combination shows a new record overshoot of an increasingly high level for Tsy-based inflation expectations.

Inflation breakeven: 5Y (white) 5Y5Y forward (yellow) and differential of 5Y5Y - 5Y (green)Source: Bloomberg

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