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India CPI:  Trend is Moving in the Right Direction.

INDIA
  • India’s CPI release came in lower than expected at 3.54% in July according to the Statistics Ministry.
  • This is the first print below the RBI’s 4% target in almost five years, being the slowest pace since August 2019.
  • The median forecast was for 3.60% having climbed to 5.08% in June.
  • Due to statistical reasons, the inflation reading was expected to decline for July and as such should have limited impact on monetary policy.
  • The third quarter has favourable year on year base effects which will need to taper off to provide appropriate guidance on monetary policy.
  • Food prices continue to present challenges rising 5.42% compared to 9.36% in June, whereas fuel and lighting prices declined 5.4% yoy.
  • Housing prices rose 2.68% yoy and clothing and footwear 2.67%yoy..
  • The retracement of core prices is promising and will allow the Central Bank to contemplate its monetary policy. However ahead of the Federal Reserve Rate decision in September, it is unlikely that we see any change to their thinking.

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