INDON Sov Curves Steepens, BI To Support Do IDR, Rate Decision Wed

The Indonesian sov curve has bear-steepened today, yields are 2-5bps higher. BI was out earlier pledging their support for the IDR after the currency has fallen over 5% for the year, while Barclays suggests the BI may opt for a 50bps rise next week.

• The INDON sov curve has steepened today, the 2Y yield is 1.5bps higher at 5.265%, 5Y yield is 3.5bps higher at 5.29%, the 10Y yield is 4.5bps higher at 5.425%, while the 5-year CDS spiked earlier hitting a high of 88bps, we are off those highs but still trade up 4bps to 82bps.
• The INDON to UST spread diff has widen over the week with the 2Y is 33.5bps (+1.5bps), 5yr is 69.5bps (+2.5bps), while the 10yr is 87bps (+4bps)
• In cross-asset moves, the USD/IDR is up 0.63% at 16,276, the JCI is 1.45% lower, Palm Oil is unchanged, while US Tsys yields are 5-9bps lower.
• Bank Indonesia, according to Governor Perry Warjiyo, pledges to uphold rupiah stability through foreign exchange intervention and other essential actions. Warjiyo emphasizes the central bank's commitment to managing foreign portfolio flows in a market-friendly manner, citing it as crucial for strengthening external resilience amid global risks.
• Barclays suggests Indonesia may opt for a 50bp rate hike at its April 24 meeting to stabilize the rupiah, driven by heightened currency stability concerns. However, a 25bp hike is more likely, with a hawkish tone expected if rates remain unchanged. Despite efforts, foreign investment in Indonesia's rupiah securities remains modest compared to government securities.
• Looking ahead: Calendar remains empty until Trade Balance on Monday and BI rate decision on Wednesday.