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Industrial Production Holding Up As Eurozone Defies Downturn (1/2)

GLOBAL

Global industrial production has held up well in 2022, despite multiple headwinds.

  • Global IP aggregates have recorded stalled growth since mid-2022 but are up around 1-2% since the start of the year, while the largest manufacturers (China, Eurozone, US) are all positive Y/Y as of September.
  • The biggest surprise of all has been in eurozone IP data. Sentiment readings have become increasingly disconnected from "hard" data, and several indicators that have historically pointed to a significant downturn in industry / manufacturing are suggesting that activity in those sectors should be collapsing.
  • Two leading indicators are below: Swedish PMI new orders less inventories and German IFO manufacturing expectations, which suggest significant contraction should already be underway.
  • Instead, euro area IP continues to grow and recorded an upside surprise in September, expanding by +0.9% m/m after robust +2.0% m/m growth in August.

Source: Swedbank, Eurostat, MNI

Source: IFO, Eurostat, MNI

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