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Inflation Breakevens Ease Whilst Real Yield-Equity Relationship Pauses

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  • Contrary to the recent increase in surveyed inflation expectations – both NY Fed today and U.Mich Friday – Treasury breakevens have dipped 3-3.5bps today on the back of a 8-9bp increase in real yields.
  • This leaves the 10Y at 2.38%, back near levels shortly after the Nov 2 FOMC and otherwise last seen in mid-October as they continued to climb after the then CPI upside surprise.

10Y breakeven

Source: Bloomberg

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  • Contrary to the recent increase in surveyed inflation expectations – both NY Fed today and U.Mich Friday – Treasury breakevens have dipped 3-3.5bps today on the back of a 8-9bp increase in real yields.
  • This leaves the 10Y at 2.38%, back near levels shortly after the Nov 2 FOMC and otherwise last seen in mid-October as they continued to climb after the then CPI upside surprise.

10Y breakeven

Source: Bloomberg

Keep reading...Show less