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Inflation Data Likely To Boost Verbal Attacks On High Rates

BRAZIL
  • Brazil’s annual inflation slowed more than expected on Tuesday, reaching 4.65% Y/y, the lowest level since January 2021. While the data provides further good news for the central bank, yesterday’s marginal increase to 2023 & 2024 year-end inflation expectations is unlikely to change the immediate thinking for the Copom.
  • However, President Lula and finance minister Haddad’s criticism of the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates high is likely to remain persistent following the data. The administration remains adamant that current policy is hindering the nation’s economy and hurting both investment and the nation’s poorest people.
  • The data comes just as congress prepares to debate the new fiscal framework, meant to shore up the nation’s finances. It is worth noting that Globo have reported that the government is making adjustments to the new framework, which is still to be sent to Congress.
    • According to the report, changes would block extraordinary revenues becoming permanent and would send 2/3 of any beyond target fiscal surplus to pay interests on federal debt. If confirmed, changes are likely to be welcomed by domestic markets.
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