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Inflation Falls Sharply On Base Effects, Core Steadier

THAILAND

Headline CPI inflation for May came in well below forecasts at 0.5% y/y from 2.7% in April due to fuel and food prices and negative base effects. Inflation shot up in May 2022 to 7.1% y/y from 4.6%. Core CPI was more stable at 1.6% y/y down from 1.7%. This further easing of inflation pressures to an almost 2-year low, and the Commerce Ministry’s warning that June headline inflation could contract on fuel & power prices should mean that the Bank of Thailand is on hold in August after hiking rates to 2% in May. This could be the terminal rate if the tourism-related inflation risks don’t materialise.

Thailand CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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