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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY50 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

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CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1268 FRI VS 7.1270

MNI: BANXICO HOLDS INTERBANK RATE STEADY AT 11.00%

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bowman Says Policy Appears To Be Restrictive

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Japan May Ind. Output 2.8% M/M; Shipments +3.5% M/M

MNI BRIEF:Japan May Factory Output Hits First Rise in 2 Months

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MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Inflation in focus

EUROPEAN DATA
  • Flash inflation data for February is in focus this morning with French inflation data due at 7:45GMT / 8:45CET and Spanish data due at 8:00GMT / 9:00CET. These data come ahead of German state / national prints tomorrow and the Italian / Eurozone prints on Thursday.
  • These data will be crucial for the ECB's communication at its March meeting. The bar to anything other than a 50bp hike in March is huge at this stage, but the communication surrounding future meetings is still going to be very data driven, with inflation data being the most important datapoint in Europe in coming months.
  • As we have already noted in previous bullets this morning, market pricing is now consistent with a 50bp hike in March and then one 50bp and two 25bp in the May/June/July meetings and then roughly a 50% probability of a further hike in September or later.
  • This morning's data brings two way risks to this pricing but we also note that as this is flash data we don't get huge amounts of detail in the breakdown. For the French data we don't receive a core print, while for the Spanish data the only core inflation print we receive is of the national CPI, not the HICP, which can sometimes be different.
  • All will be closely watched, however, and likely set the day for the tone for the European trading session.
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