MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Inflation in focus

EUROPEAN DATA
  • Flash inflation data for February is in focus this morning with French inflation data due at 7:45GMT / 8:45CET and Spanish data due at 8:00GMT / 9:00CET. These data come ahead of German state / national prints tomorrow and the Italian / Eurozone prints on Thursday.
  • These data will be crucial for the ECB's communication at its March meeting. The bar to anything other than a 50bp hike in March is huge at this stage, but the communication surrounding future meetings is still going to be very data driven, with inflation data being the most important datapoint in Europe in coming months.
  • As we have already noted in previous bullets this morning, market pricing is now consistent with a 50bp hike in March and then one 50bp and two 25bp in the May/June/July meetings and then roughly a 50% probability of a further hike in September or later.
  • This morning's data brings two way risks to this pricing but we also note that as this is flash data we don't get huge amounts of detail in the breakdown. For the French data we don't receive a core print, while for the Spanish data the only core inflation print we receive is of the national CPI, not the HICP, which can sometimes be different.
  • All will be closely watched, however, and likely set the day for the tone for the European trading session.
DataHomepageData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.